Thursday, December 8, 2011

Chinese RMB to Dollar, where is it going?

How far can RMB (Chinese currency) appreciate against the US dollar, and how soon will that happen? The Chinese holds massive of our debt, if their money appreciate, doesn't make the debt they are holding worth less?|||The dollar is in free fall, or will be so soon. The RMB is probably a good bet against the dollar for the near term. China's problem is not their dollar holdings, as US debt is held by every exporting country. Their problem long term is access to raw materials, political expectations of a rising middle class and internal stability. I wouldn't hold RMB more than a year or two going out; eventually China will melt down IMHO. However, if the Obama Health plan gets into law, the dollar may collapse entirely.|||Any debt becomes worth less as time goes on. When you purchased your home, you repay the debt with money that has depreciated in buying power as time advances. I bought a home for $50,000 24 years ago. Cost per month was $450 then, it is still $450 per month today. But today, I can't buy as much of a home for $450 than I could 24 years ago. So, the debt that I incurred when I bought the home has less impact on my available income now than it did 24 years ago.

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